This article is based on a presentation given in August 2009.

Download the presentation [1.4MB, PDF]

Collaborative communities

We face many challenges in the coming years; the limits of growth, climate change and peak everything, beginning with oil.

The media has been preoccupied with the financial collapse. The situation is much more complex than the collapse of the sub-prime market. Last year’s price of oil at $140 a barrel, was too high for non-producing countries, and lead to significant demand reduction. Demand is continuing to drop, even though the price is still less than half it was at its peak.

In its most recent report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the oil supply shortfall that they had previously predicted for 2010 will only be delayed a little by the recession.

Dr Faith Birol, the chief economist at the IEA in Paris, says “there is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year, whenever demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.” The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7% a year compared to the 3.75 decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

Oil availability then, is the first major restraint on growth. Water supply is also constrained, with lowering water tables, melting glaciers, and increasing severity of drought in major grain producing areas, portends food shortages. Pumping underground water exceeds natural recharge in countries containing half the world’s people, leaving many without adequate water. If growth resumed, most basic commodities would reach peak production within a few decades.

Sustainability and natural resilience

While the economy has grown exponentially, the earth’s natural capacities have not. This includes its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood. Humanity’s collective demands first surpassed the earth’s regenerative capacity around 1980.

Today, global demands on natural systems exceed their sustainable yield capacity by nearly 30 percent. We are meeting current demands by consuming the earth’s natural assets, setting the stage for decline and collapse. We must learn to live within our carbon footprint.

Each of us depends on the products and services provided by the earth’s ecosystems, ranging from forest to wetlands, from coral reefs to grasslands. Among the services these ecosystems provide are water purification, pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, and soil conservation. A four-year study of the world’s ecosystems by 1,360 scientists, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, reported that 15 of 24 primary ecosystem services are being degraded or pushed beyond their limits. For example, three quarters of oceanic fisheries, a major source of protein in the human diet, are being fished at or beyond their limits, and many are headed toward collapse.

- Adapted from Chapter 1, “Entering a New World,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization

Consultation

Fellow Regional Councillors have remarked to me, “Paul, we have a different culture here. You need to take care!”

Our future is indeed determined by how we take care, what parameters we set, and how we collaborate. I have come to learn that Council officers write reports, and by and large Regional Councillors rubber stamp them. Consultation has involved a request for submissions, and then a perfunctory hearing.

However, the end game is a delightful, cradle to cradle, pollution free environment with clean water, air and soil… not business as usual.

I attended the first World Social Forum in Porte Alegre, Southern Brazil in 2001, as a Council for International Development representative.

At that time, Porte Alegre was the poster child for participatory democracy, and yes, they did increase participation, which lead to a significant surge in projects targeted to marginalised areas, and a reduction in poverty and increase in well being. The city council emphasised influence and deliberation as important for long lasting solutions. At the same time, Argentina, across the border to the south, suffered melt down, after years of military dictatorship, followed my IMF impositions. Unemployment was close to 50% with widespread poverty. This lead to a social revolution, with 5 changes of government. Worker’s co-operatives and community gardens now flourish, and Argentina has joined Hugo Chavez of Venezuelan’s Alba alliance, rather than following the dictates of the IMF and World Bank, and the neo-liberal free market mantras.

New Zealand is at a crossroads with the election of a National/Act Government. Do we move to a more collaborative system, or a centralised city state under control of the technocratics?

Pathways to Resilient Communities

Earlier this year, we held a Pathways to Resilient Community dialogue with about 150 Local government and community representatives, where we discussed the concept of resiliency and key vulnerabilities of the region.

Resilient communities workshops

These ideas have feed back into the Long term community plan.

Greater Wellington has undertaken to develop a Genuine Progress Index (GPI) to measure progress towards the four well beings (social, cultural, economic and environmental outcomes). A report by Aaron Packard explores the role for public participation in the assessment of the these indicators [Public Participation in the Community Outcomes Process and the Development of the Wellington Region Genuine Progress Indicators: Feb 09, unpublished].

“Any initiative must have influence to give a sense of meaning for participants…..One of the principal reasons offered for low levels of participant motivation was a perception that the public had little influence over agency decisions…. increasing influence helps to build trust, which in turn fosters participation”.

Deliberation creates an environment in which the exchange of perspectives arising from social difference constructively builds a common ground for community development. Deliberation fosters social learning, can be effective at dealing with conflict and can change people’s perspectives and preferences. Deliberation requires careful facilitation and planning”.

Effective deliberation needs good representation. Extra effort is required to ensure that frequently unheard groups are engaged, such as youth, indigenous peoples, disabled and migrant groups.

Inclusion or representativeness provides legitimacy to the outcomes of public participation. A study found that 60% of public participation processes were not-representative of the general public, leaving those that do not participate excluded from both the process and ownership.

New ways of hosting meetings and harvesting innovative ideas and concepts need to be found. A deliberative process, will bring clarity to where benefits and disadvantages lie, and where there needs to be some rebalancing.

Can we develop the grand vision that will take us into a post-carbon future?

Transport

GW plans and funds most public transport, and is now looking at when and how often services run, and how they connect with each other.

The system suffers from decades of neglect. Trolley bus and rail networks have been allowed to run down. There is a large amount of infra structure work that still has to be done, upgrading rail stations, the lines, signalling, stabling yards.

New trains have been purchased and will begin to come into service mid 2010.
Real time information displays will also be rolled out in 250 separate locations over the 12 months, and then when you next text for a departure time from your stop, it will be real time, not just a timetable. The next thing is integrated ticketing, and NZTA (Transport Agency) is investigating a system which will be operable over the whole country.

However, that is not the end of the matter. We need to design a network that will work for mums and dads, children and of course singles, through the weekend, during evenings, and on weekdays, and for the carriage of cycles. That means including destinations to sports fields, shopping centres, recreational spots such as Red Rocks…

And the active modes have to be supported. Gil Penalosa, the transport engineer who redesigned Bogota’s transport system, says that there are only 1 or 2% kamikaze cyclists who will mix it with car traffic. If you paint a white line on the road, that increases to 5%. Then if you construct a special cycle way, protected from the traffic by shrubs, then 30% will venture out.

There is space for this in Wellington, especially if we remove a few car parks, as is happening in some European countries. Options are presently being developed for a dedicated cycle/walk way between Petone and Nguaranga, and we hope this will be the foundation of a Great Harbour Way.

Question: What role should the private car play in a post carbon society?

Regional Water Strategy

There is a proposal before Greater Wellington to bring together the Three Waters, potable, storm water and sewage under a Committee containing both Iwi and GW Councillors.

The disruption of the small water cycle is accompanied by growing extremes in the weather, a gradual drop in groundwater reserves, more frequent flooding, longer periods of drought and an increase in the water shortage in the region.

Can a new Committee structure allow more collaborative conservation at the local level, rain water collection tanks, permeable surfaces, compost toilets, grey water recycling? Or do we further com-modify water, build dams.

GW will be assisting in financing elements of the New Green Deal, that allows you to repay loans through your rates, for clean heat and insulation upgrades, and this could be extended to rain water collection tanks.

Question: Are water meters an essential component of a conservation strategy?

New Urbanism

Now is the time to wake up to the power of solar, irresistible cities, community gardens, a great harbour way, energy efficient buildings, and make our region the best post-carbon place to be.

For more information

Contact Regional Councillor Paul Bruce
paul.bruce@greens.org.nz
phone: 04 9728699 cellphone:021 02719370

A Community resilience Plan is urgently needed to address possible energy supply disruptions.

Energy prices are rising because global oil demand continues to exceed global oil production and we have not planned an orderly transition to alternatives. The International Energy Agency is warning of oil supply problems in the coming year, and Goldman Sachs predicts oil price rises taking petrol above $3 a litre by the end of the year.

Many aspects of society – transport, agriculture, trade, tourism, and manufacturing, to name just a few – are heavily dependent on oil. Continuing oil price rises and possible supply shortages may lead to severe impacts on the Wellington region’s economy, and widen the gap between rich and poor.

Appropriate use and management of such resources will be critical in meeting our lifestyle needs in the future. It is important that a Community Resilience Plan be developed to investigate the effects of oil depletion and oil price rises, and recommend steps that they should take to prepare for and mitigate these impacts. All sectors and community groups should be involved in developing this Plan.

Whether the underlying reasons for this are geological, economic, or both, the effect is that the cost of fuel in New Zealand has increased rapidly. The Wellington region has enough renewable energy resources to support the region’s electricity needs.  As the current global food crisis shows, the price of oil affects far more than just transport, although it is transport where the effect is felt first.

To ensure long term resilience in the face of continued oil price increases, we need to adapt by shifting expenditure from transport which is dependent on oil to transport which is not, and then look at other areas that will be affected.

Greater Wellington Regional Council Resolutions

1. Investigate effects of oil price rises and potential shortages on the Wellington region
2. Recommend steps to prepare for and mitigate impacts on transport, agriculture, trade, tourism, manufacturing…
3. Convene a forum to bring key players and interest groups to set terms of reference for formulating a Community Resilience Plan

References

1. Peak Oil Task Force Recommendations from Portland
2. Resilient Communities: A Guide to Disaster Management
3. Transition Towns charter that started in the UK a few years ago, and is now taking root in many New Zealand communities, also provides a useful model.

For more information

Contact Regional Councillor Paul Bruce
paul.bruce@greens.org.nz
phone: 04 9728699 cellphone:021 02719370

The International Panel on Climate Change confirms that serious climate change impacts are already happening, and significant climate tipping points have already been passed.

Greenhouse emissions must peak now, and then we must return them to their pre-industrial level of 280ppm.

Fran Wilde, Chair of Greater Wellington, acknowledges in the foreword to our Regional Policy Statement, that “..our planet has reached a tipping point in terms of sustainability of life….. there is clear evidence that boundless consumption has depleted or damaged physical resources to the extent that we must fundamentally change our approach to the environment.”

In the natural world, waste from one process provides nutrients for another. A whole of life cycle. Nothing is wasted. This is our vision. Uptake of renewable energy forms will play a crucial part.

We have the mandate. New Zealanders are looking for change, and local Government has the levers and resources. In moving away from fossil fuels will also improve safety, employment, social justice and resilience.

Super-city

Government under National is set on a course of local government reform, starting with the creation of a Auckland super city.

However, we need to take a step back, and rephrase the question as one of resiliency and sustainability. What are cities doing well now? What shared services are done better on a regional (super city) basis? How can we increase participation of our communities as we move into a post-carbon age?

Greater Wellington Regional Council already takes on some rolls of a super city. Greater Wellington runs the region’s public transport system, and rightly or wrongly, determines what new roads and/or cycle ways will be built. That consultation is occurring right now, though the outcomes may be altered by the Government’s shifting of $1 billion allocated spending from public transport and active modes to roads.

Potential

Wellington region has enormous renewable energy potential. Wellington city itself hums with a vibrancy that comes from a denser inner core. Thirty one percent of inner city residents no longer own a car, and 73% walk to work. Thirteen per cent of regional commuting trips were by foot or cycle at the last census, and a WCC 2006 local survey, showed that 27% of trips in Wellington city between 1km and 2km were made by walking and cycling.

48,000 (17% of population) commute by public transport daily to the CBD, amounting to 17million rides a year. We use less fossil fuels in Wellington than elsewhere in New Zealand, not only because of the higher use of public transport, but because seventy five percent of regional public transport passenger-kilometers are electrically powered. About two per cent of national electricity production is used in the transport sector, most of that probably coming from local trains and trolley buses.

We, of course, can still do better. Thirty six percent of Greater Wellington greenhouse emissions come from petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, and seventy per cent of car journeys are non work related visits to the super market, sport and recreation, and for social occasions, running on diesel or petrol. And up to thirty five per cent of Wellington’s electricity will be generated from thermal power stations from outside the region. This is about to change as new local wind farms are commissioned.

We also supply bulk water to most of the region.. but are not able to determine how it is used, ensure that a water conservation strategy is implemented, or incentivise rain water collection. Capacity, a Council Controlled profit making business run the retail part for Hutt Valley and Wellington city, while storm and waste water are controlled by local Councils. These functions might be better performed under a three in one regional trust.

Barriers/options for reduction of fossil fuel use

Electric vehicle support infrastructure

Moving towards biofuels and a electric vehicle support infrastructure should be part of a larger process of moving toward a sustainable transportation system, including light rail or tram-train, better urban design, with active modes integrated with a more efficient transit system, including better utilisation of rail and shipping for passenger services and freight.

Greater Wellington has purchased 96 new electric “Matangi” trains, which will replace the present fleet. Our 10 year LTCCP includes the purchase of another 14 trains, allowing for 3% annual population growth. A major deterrent to public transport use, is the hassle of a congested change of mode at Wellington Railway Station. An extension of the rail system, using tram-train through the CBD to the southern and eastern suburbs, would resolve this.

Electric cars very definitely have a place in NZ… however, they are yet to be sold here on a commercial basis, and few may be able to afford the proposed $50-60,000 price tag. According to the Boston Consulting group, electric cars in major US cities is only likely to reach 18% penetration cities by 2020. The study indicates that, unless adequate incentives are provided, electric cars might not be popular.

There is an urgent need for an infrastructure that would ensure that vehicles can be charged wherever they happen to be. Few households are wired for three phase power and/or 30 amp specifications. Public and private investment is also required to develop “smart” grid technologies, and to ensure the grid can handle the demands of these vehicles. Provision of three-pin plugs at Council bike parks for electric motorbikes and scooters and electric car charge points in association with Pay & Display ticket machines, would be a good short term provision.

Smart grid

New Zealand urgently needs a smart grid, with two-way communication, balancing supply and demand in real time, smoothing out demand peaks, and making customers active participants in the production as well as consumption of electricity.

A smart grid will also allow electric vehicles to store power for later transport use, or to sell power back to the grid when needed.

Smart meters, automated control systems, and digital sensors, will provide consumers with real-time pricing and enable them to save money and power by setting appliances, entire building heating and cooling systems, or shut off industrial loads.

Smart meters will help shift loads to low demand periods, and other types of energy storage will become an option. Two way meters are available, but there is an urgent need for legislation that would require feed in tariffs, which will encourage home generation.

Access rather than mobility

Urban form is a key factor in reducing the need for fossil fuels.

Every territorial authority except Upper Hutt are signatories to the Urban Protocol (March 2005), and Greater Wellington’s Regional Policy Statement translates this into policy. The Regional Land Transport Programme 2007-16 has a vision that acknowledges the need for better land use, that people live closer to their main destinations for work and play, more vehicles run on renewable fuels, and that peoples choices recognise the risk and impact of climate change and diminishing non-renewable resources. WCC is encountering political problems in the implementation of a high priority transport corridor through the city, and the Adelaide road redesign has been linked to a contentious basin reserve flyover.

A vibrant city will facilitate compact development around transport hubs.

• Design walkability with trips less (70%?) than 6km replaced with active modes.
• Electric trolley buses and light rail replace fossil fuelled vehicles on longer trips
• Freight shifted onto shipping and rail powered by a combination of solar, wind and bio-fuels.
  [Coastal shipping is the most energy efficient way to move freight around the country, producing only 14 grams of CO2 per tonne-kilometre compared with road at 92–123 grams of CO2 ]
• Moderate density apartments allowing regen heat, smart transport design, car share, passive solar aspects, savings in building design, community gardens
• connectedness through broad band, social access
• time share
• free cycle and swap of used goods
• clean air and good health
• Demand management programmes run through workplace and schools, encourages active modes, school walking buses etc.

Renewable energy options in Wellington region

Cost effectiveness should be balanced against contribution to low carbon footprint resilient living.

1.  Marine

Tidal energy through Cook Strait is regarded as the premier world class resource alongside Oakley Islands. It is important to note that tidal power is at this stage in a development phase, and much more expensive that other options available. It is also likely to be regarded as a national rather than local resource.

On the plus side, there is a difference of 6 hours in phase in tides from one side of Cook Strait to the other, giving the possibility of a balanced energy supply.

ECCA is looking at whether we should be allocating this resource, what is legally possible, and then how and what sort of criteria should be used to allocate rights. A report is expected in July this year. Seabed issues will need to be worked through with IWI. At this stage, Neptune has been granted resource consent by GW for an investigation of a 1 MW marine turbine tidal prototype model. The resource consent requires them to report on effects on the environment and marine life. NIWA has been giving advice. Grow Wellington is working with European Marine Energy Centre on marine technologies and potential environmental impacts.

2. Wind

Electricity from wind turbines is competitively produced near the average wholesale price, and does not appear to need any form of subsidy. EECA suggests that there is approximately 500-700MW of wind capacity available for development.

Meridian Energy will have commissioned the West Wind Farm by the end of the year, with 62×2.4mw turbines supplying enough energy for 70,000 Wellington homes. Project Mill Creek (Ohariu Valley) has now also been consented for another 29 wind turbines. GW is proposing wind farms for Puketiro in the Akatarawa forest (about 50 turbines) and Stoney Creek in the Wairarapa. Wind Flow Technologies are seeking consent for 28 smaller 500kW turbines for Long Gully behind Brooklyn. In 2007, Vector began trials of micro wind turbines in urban sites around Wellington, each with a rated capacity of 1.5KW.

There is some controversy over whether wind farms should be sited in Regional Parks. However, schemes consented or about to be consented, will supply most of the region’s electrical needs within a few years.

3. Hydro

No major schemes are available in the region. However, a number of small schemes are planned, including a min-hydro generator at the Wainuiomata Water Treatment Plant. According to EECa, there is about 38MW available, in mini and small scale projects in areas outside the Department of Conservation land and native forest areas.

4. Wood

EECA assesses more than 20 million litres per year of ethanol or 90GWh/year of electrical energy from woody biomass derived from low-grade forestry.

There are reasonable sized pine forests in the region, some of that on GW land. Most dwellings contain trees and waste wood that could be utilised in wood burners. A national project to shift schools to pellet burners instead of gas and coal began last year. Modern pellet burners are extremely efficient and could also be used in regen units to produce electricity and heat water. Molly Melhuish believes that are sufficient sources of public land and road reserve that could supply most households with waste wood. Wood stoves for heating are especially beneficial for off setting peak loads during cold snaps, eliminating the need for new capacity Modern burners run efficiently with very low emissions. The GW Regional Sustainability Committee will look at possible actions to support uptake.

5. Biofuels

Wellington city council collects landfill gas from its Happy Valley landfill, which then runs a one Mwh generator. WCC is planning for zero waste city. Green matter and food waste is also converted to compost. We can go one better, and build a biogas digester for energy and crop fertilizer for community gardens, as happens with Christchurch city.

Aquaflow in Blenheim has a prototype sewage to algae plant. This algae can be used in power plants as fuel or converted into bioethanol, biodiesel, or biogas and provide high-protein feed for livestock, aquaculture or trees.

Wellington’s plastics could be turned into methane gas under an ambitious plan to reduce offshore recycling and help power the city. Human waste could provide extra fuel, with sewage sludge a possible additive to create more gas which could power 250,000 homes. Wellington company SpectioNZ has been asked to do a feasibility study by Grow Wellington, Wellington City Council and Kapiti Coast District Council

Plantation forestry in the region, some of it on GW land, could also used as a feed stock for bio-fuels using an enzymic process. However, there are no commercial projects in sight.

6.  Solar water heaters, heat pump water heater, insulation, domestic air tightness

A new building code went into effect last year, which places 900,000 in New Zealand and 169,000 occupied dwellings in Wellington region without adequate insulation. A third of Wellington city’s households have inadequate insulation (BRANZ). Anything built before 2000 will be less than best practice, while homes built before 1978 may have no insulation at all.

The Sustainability Trust, a Wellington based non-profit charitable trust which supports local communities in addressing sustainability related issues, is currently focused on energy efficiency, with free and subsidised insulation retrofits. A Green fund of $1billion dollars over 10 years is currently being repackaged as a Blue fund of $100m per year.

Solar water heaters, heat pump water heater are economical over a period of 8 to 15 years. Subsidies of $1000 are available through EECA.

GW would like to see greater clarity of information supplied to households on efficiencies of various models alongside available subsidies.

7. Photovoltaics (PVs)

Cost effective in isolated environments. European countries are integrating PVs into rooftops and even building facades, where they are sometimes cheaper than traditional sidings. However, the cost is at least double conventional sources of electricity in NZ, and is not being actively supported by Government.

8. Human body

The conversion of high quality nutritious food into calories available to run our legs for walking and cycling is the most under rated renewable energy about. Our bodies need at least an hour of moderate exercise a day to remain healthy and this can easily substitute for 6km car ride, with consequent reduction in fossil fuel use (Substituting car trips with walking and cycling of up to one hour, would reduce US oil consumption by 28%, Higgins & HIggins 2005)

All TAs and GW have cycle plans specifing the need for safe cycling routes. In spite of this, change is slow and some times non-existent. Riddiford Street was upgraded in January this year, with no provision for cyclists, though advance stop markings have since been added.

A Petone to Ngauranga cycle/walk way has the potential to take 10,000 cars off the road, and would cost a fraction of the cost of new road lanes.

What you can do

Greater Wellington is developing a Genuine progress framework for a picture of well-being of the region. These include the following community outcomes: Prosperous community, Connected community, entrepreneurial and Innovative community, Healthy environment, Quality lifestyle, Sense of place, Regional Foundations , Healthy community, Strong and Tolerant Community.

Renewable energy and the replacement of fossil fuels play a key part in everyone of these indicators, and the Greenhouse gas emissions inventory is available as part of the milestone 2 and 3 of the CCP-NZ climate protection programme. A regional energy plan is also being developed.

Let Greater Wellington Regional Council know you support renewable energy in Wellington

For more information

Contact Regional Councillor Paul Bruce
paul.bruce@greens.org.nz
phone: 04 9728699
cellphone:021 02719370